The Annual Rain Dance:
Budgeting Is a More Useful Ritual When Strategy Drives It, And Not Vice Versa
By Mark W. Sheffert
November 2002
It’s that time of year again, when organizations go through the annual -- almost mystical -- ritual of
compiling numbers (pages and pages of numbers, thanks to the wonder of budgeting software) to create “The Budget”. Executives lead the way, believing that through the budget they can coordinate the
various functions of their organization. By sharing accurate information and making decisions from a
common set of numbers, functions will work in harmony, processes will be more efficient, products
will be of the highest quality, inventories will be managed effectively, customers will be happy … the
band will play, the sun will shine, birds will chirp, the prince will slay the dragon to save the princess,
and they will ride off into the sunset to live happily ever after. Sound familiar?
Well, rather than living in a fairy tale, how about a big fat dose of reality. Because bonuses are based
on achieving specific budget goals, managers argue behind closed doors throughout the entire budgeting
process. Sales and marketing set their targets low so that they can easily achieve them, and then
play games with their numbers throughout the year to ensure that they get the maximum bonus
allowed. Manufacturing suspects the gaming, so it orders the same amount of inventory as it did last
year, ignoring this year’s sales budget. Finance needs to cover its own derriére, so it pads the budget
here and there, playing its own shell game to compensate for the games played between other departments
-- and on and on it goes.
Instead of harmony and efficiency, the budget process creates an environment that is chaotic, decisions
that are based on distorted information, and an organization that is rife with cynicism and skepticism.
Having observed this budgeting process over the years in many companies, I’ve concluded that it’s like
watching sausage being made: Once you see it, you don’t ever want to eat it again.
The budget becomes a joke. It’s based on unrealistic sales forecasts and distorted expense estimates,
painting an impractical -- yet always rosy -- picture of next year’s profits. Therefore, the budgeting
process has earned my affectionate nickname, the “Annual Rain Dance”.
During the year, the finance folks will produce volumes of monthly reports demonstrating actual performance
compared to the budget. And by mid-year or sooner, it becomes obvious that the
budget is obsolete. Perhaps revenues haven’t materialized like the sales people dreamed they would. Or
cutting expenses out of production looked good on paper, but hasn’t been as easy to do as the production
team thought it would be. Or, the cost of materials has gone up dramatically due to some unforeseen
or overlooked event. Or the numbers were so distorted that nobody believed in them from the
get-go, but just wanted to get the anguishing budget process over with. The budget is ignored for the
remainder of the year -- until it’s dusted off to write next year’s budget.
The reality is that the budget ritual often does the opposite of what is intended. Now, I’m not advocating
throwing budgets entirely out the window. Budgets are not only necessary, they are the essence of
management; they are the primary instrument of planning and control – when they’re done right. From what I’ve observed, budgets fail when executives expect them to do things budgets shouldn’t do.
BUDGETS SHOULDN’T LEAD STRATEGY
I’ve worked with many organizations that have been operating by the seat of their pants, strategically
speaking, because they did not have a well-written strategic plan with measurable goals and objectives.
The annual budget is the only document managers take the time to produce. Therefore, by default, the
budget is in the driver’s seat of strategy.
But budgets should not drive strategic goals and objectives; strategy should drive budgeting decisions.
When budgets lead strategy, decisions are based on short-term budget objectives instead of long-term
strategic goals. Allocation of resources is based on which manager whines the best or screams the
loudest, instead of being allocated strategically.
Hand in hand with the Annual Rain Dance, companies should carry out an examination of customers,
competitors, and economic and technological changes, as well as an internal examination of performance
and ability to compete. Then, a handful of performance-based corporate objectives should be
written -- to make a return on investment of 15 percent after taxes by the end of five years, for
instance. Several functional objectives (goals for sales, gross profits, work force, and production
capacity, to name a few examples) need to back up each objective, and tactics to achieve each functional
objective are needed to finalize the document.
Linking corporate strategy with the budget leads to greater support of corporate objectives, better
coordination of tactical plans, and in the end, greater performance organization wide. This link is
made even stronger by effective communication of the goals and objectives to employees. Companies
that build effective communication channels will find that their budgets are more realistic and helpful
in supporting strategic goals.
BUDGETS SHOULDN’T MEASURE PERFORMANCE
Many executives evaluate the performance of their managers primarily on how well they hit their
budget targets. This may be necessary and logical, but it doesn’t acknowledge reality. A one-dimensional
evaluation like this is like putting a big steak bone in front of my dog: It’s just too darn tempting
for managers to play games with their budget goals or to make short-term changes that aren’t necessarily
in the organization’s best interest.
I’ve seen executive teams that have set forth pie-in-the-sky budget goals that would either require
divine intervention or cooking the books to achieve. Or, if the organization has a history of failed
attempts in performing up to budget expectations, rather than dealing with the question of why, they
low-ball goals and settle for mediocrity. In several cases, organizations have made goals that they don’t
have the necessary capital resources to support. Then at the end of the month, quarter, or year, when
actual performance doesn’t match budget goals, frustration, cynicism, and finger-pointing erupt. And a
few very ambitious, creative, and carnivorous managers – those without consciences – may even be
tempted to rearrange and play games with their numbers. Can we say Enron, Tyco, Adelphia,
WorldCom?
One effective way to change this nonsensical behavior may be to establish a linear compensation plan
that rewards actual performance independent of budget targets. If managers receive the same bonus
for a certain level of performance whether the budget target is beneath or above that level, the motivation
to play games with the numbers is reduced. Or, instead of rewarding only budget performance,
use a balanced set of performance measures relevant to the function, such as growth in market share,
reduction in product defect rates, or increased speed to market for new products.
BUDGETS SHOULDN’T PREDICT THE FUTURE
History is not necessarily the best predictor of the future, yet most organizations build budgets from
the prior year’s numbers. Many times, I’ve seen multiyear budgets that are nothing more than linear
sequential projections of 10 percent revenue growth and 5 percent profit margin growth each year for
the next three to five years – even though the company has never hit any of those numbers before!
Budgets should provide flexibility and adaptability to reflect factors outside the organization’s control.
They should accommodate change and allow managers to use resources efficiently to take advantage
of new opportunities or respond to competitive threats. Flexibility also frees budget developers from
the temptation to pad budgets to cover the wide variety of possible unforeseen developments.
Whether an organization reviews its budget on a quarterly, monthly, or even weekly basis, it should
include in those reviews an examination of changes in business conditions. This will alert management
that a revision in the budget may be necessary. While it’s inexcusable to revise budgets to cover up
poor performance or bad planning, it’s moronic to stick to a budget that no longer reflects the current
environment. Some organizations create built-in flexibility by using rolling forecasts instead of traditional
annual budgets.
Another method that allows for flexibility is to create multiple scenarios based on possible events. For
example, what impact would a 300-basis point move in interest rates have on your business? Or, how
would you respond to pricing changes by your competition? These “what if” scenarios help organizations
respond more quickly and effectively when one of these events actually happens, instead of reacting
blindly or being caught flat-footed.
The budget process doesn’t have to lead to chaos, mistrust, and lying. Rather, the Annual Rain Dance
can be an opportunity to think strategically and creatively about the future of the business. When done
right, budgets can help organizations make better decisions and plan long-term goals. They can be a
powerful motivator for people. Then, the Annual Rain Dance can be replaced with … The Victory
Dance!
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